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Posts Tagged ‘Mathematical Statistic’

Earlier today, 8th February here in Gothenburg Sweden, I wrote a comment to Statistical flaws in sciene p-values and false positives, wattsupwiththat.com 2014/02/07
Comment of mine:
To be remembered: (this one from a link on line. Sometimes other words used but the link includes all there is to be remembered BEFORE one go on analysing one’s results)
The strength of the evidence for the alternative hypothesis is often summed up in a ‘P value’ (also called the significance level) – and this is the point where the explanation has to become technical. If an outcome O is said to have a P value of 0.05, for example, this means that O falls within the 5% of possible outcomes that represent the strongest evidence in favour of the alternative hypothesis rather than the null. If O has a P value of 0.01 then it falls within the 1% of possible cases giving the strongest evidence for the alternative. So the smaller the P value the stronger the evidence.

Of course an outcome may not have a small significance level (or P value) at all. Suppose the outcome is not significant at the 5% level. This is sometimes – and quite wrongly – interpreted to mean that there is strong evidence in favour of the null hypothesis. The proper interpretation is much more cautious: we simply don’t have strong enough evidence against the null. The alternative may still be correct, but we don’t have the data to justify that conclusion.Statistical significance, getstats.org.uk page

That said it’s also important to analyse the question oneself has put forward to falsify hypothesis in question. As Vollmer Gerhard wrote 1993, Wissenschaftstheorie in Einsatz, Stuttgart 1993 :
Die wichtigkeit oder Bedeutung eines Problems hängt immer auch von subjektiven, bewer tendens Elementen ab.
Quick English translation: The importance or significance of a problem always depends on subjective, evaluative elements.
In other words one have to remember that no one of us is without having Tendens in our backpack. This means that we have to be careful not to mix black, grey and white alternative nor to ask dependent questuions. Remember that in every analyse of a result that tries to be in accuracy of Theories of Science it’s better to use Chebyshev’s inequality, next in analyse.

While all this might give you more than a hint of a certain type of observation, the ‘fact’ observed in curves that two types of observation interact significantly with it’s other is a total different thing.
If A can be showed to lead up to B in X numbers of studies and at the same time some B lead up to C no nullhypothesis what so ever is enough to prove that A leads to C.
You better use Set of Theory and Number theory on your two variables/curves in order to be able to draw a more than probable conclusion.

The comment I wrote needs further explination:

Think of nine squares of a farmer’s field. On all but the inner one there have been an excavation. Nothing of importance been found. Normally scholars who aren’t scholars of Mathematic tend to believe that it’s proven that there is high likelihood that the inner field should give the same result given it was excavated. That’s wrong.

Inger’s theorem

Fields on land or part of none analysed observations that hasn’t been excavated/evalutated are to be thought as being grey. Not proven to show a significant result nor not proven to do so. theorem presented in my Academic C-essay; Vattenvägarna in mot Roxen i äldre tider, C-uppsats Historia Linköpings Universitet 1993 (English title would be Waterways towards Lake Roxen in older Ages)

This means that one have to have added information in order to be able to draw conclusions that ”holds water”

For example:

Fort/Fortress older than 1000's from Baltic Sea towards Lake Roxen

Fort/Fortress older than 1000’s from Baltic Sea towards Lake Roxen

On map every destingueshed located fort/fortress (except for two I missed) is marked that can be proven to have been used before 1000 AD. But one need to have datings from archaeologists for every one in order to be able to show that during each period’s peak (Stone Age, Bronze Age, Early resp Late Iron Age, Migration Age, Early Viking Age) the ‘best’ waterway of each period was used. (read due to waterlevels and landrise best waterway to be used) That I did in my essay apart from the extra I had had to analyse, in other words Waterlevels in Oceans and Sea from Mid-Stone Age to 1000 AD. (43 variables I first had to write a computer program for) checking actually known coastline/waterlevel to be able to use the results in Baltic Sea and Baltic Sea’s precursors.

Conclusion: Mathematic Statistic isn’t as easy as many scholars believe. It’s never enough only to use Null-Hypothesis.

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copy of text sent last hour as a comment to A Displaced Polar Vortex and Its Causes, wattsupwiththat 2014/02/01

”The Earth’s circumference at the equator is about 40 076,592 km. Nearly 40 009 km if we measure the circumference from pole to pole. Hence, it is flattened at the poles due to centrifugal force, the water cycle, erosion of various kinds from vulcanos on land and in sea needs to be taken into consideration when calculating the impact of each periods saltination in sea especially in areas south and south east of Alaska.

One other important factor is that Earth’s axis tilt, oblikvidity varies in relation to our Earth’s rotation between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees. A factor forgotten (?) by many scholars still believing in human caused Global warming….

A third important factor never taken into consideration in any of the so called computermodels is that Vulcanos on land due to the fact mentioned above, in other words that our globe isn’t an ideal sphere, has had large impacts on stofts in ‘air’ and athmosphere.

For more reading on impacts such as large numbers (millions) of deaths from Iceland to China as well as impact on photosyntesis in plants causing crop failure in other words bad harvest, please read: Alexandra Witze & Jeff Kanipe, An Island on Fire: The extraordinary story of Laki, the vulcano that turned eighteen century Europe dark, Profile Books 2014.

Our Earth has a complexed weather system especially observed in the Arctic. One need to take all windfactors as well as eruptions, erosions of different kind, seastreams into consideration,
not forgetting that the main factor behind all observed correct data as well as the so called temperature changes observed by satelites into consideration, the later never ever gives correct information of temperatures 1 meter above surface nor 1 meter under. Reflexion isn’t the same as correct temperature. Never been and never will be.

* More than 70% of Earth’s surface is water. Oceans, lakes, rivers, rivers, streams, etc.

* Impacts on landrise and sea levels still is seen caused by the last ice age. Please remember that Archimedes principle applies whether we are dealing with glaciers (which weigh down the land under) same goes for ice in the Arctic (floating in the ‘sea’) or ice and glaciers in the example Antarctica where there are both ice as ice on land.

* Sea surface NEVER can be presented as a fixed figure. When science talks about sea level we are dealing with averages over a long period, at least one year, comparing the highest and lowest value during the day. Never ever forget the moon’s attraction on the water!
Facts about Earth, swedish text

Important knowledge:
Working with sediment cores extracted from Lower Murray Lake, Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada (81°21′N, 69°32′W) in 2005 and 2006, the authors calculated annual mass accumulation rate (MAR) for the past five millennia, which they used to derive a relationship between MAR and July temperature at the two nearest permanent weather stations over the period of instrumental measurements. This work revealed there were several periods over the past 5000 years when the temperature of the region exceeded the peak temperature of the 20th century, the most recent of which was during the Medieval Warm Period, which we have delineated on the following figure as occurring between about AD 930 and 1400, and where the peak temperature of that period can be seen to have been about 0.6°C higher than the peak temperature of the Current Warm Period.
Source:
Cook, Bradley, Stoner and Francus, P. 2009. Five thousand years of sediment transfer in a high arctic watershed recorded in annually laminated sediments from Lower Murray Lake, Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada. Journal of Paleolimnology 41: 77-94.

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While reading an excellent bloggarticle on wattsupwiththat, I noticed a link that say all about the CO2-alarmists incapacity of theories of Science. Read the quotes and links below as well as The planetary tidal influence on climate fiasco strong armed science tactics are overkill due process would work better, wattsupwiththat.com 2014/01/17 the discussion there is more than interesting…

Please remember that supressing true facts aren’t the best way of putting forward an unrealistic scenario!

extraordinary news, the scientific journal Pattern Recognition in Physics has been unexpectedly terminated, a “drastic decision” taken just ten months after it started.

The publisher appears to be shocked that in a recent special issue the scientists expressed doubt about the accelerated warming predicted by the IPCC. For the crime of not bowing before the sacred tabernacle, apparently the publishers suddenly felt the need to distance themselves, and in the most over-the-top way. The reasons they gave had nothing to do with the data, the logic, and they cite no errors. There can be no mistake, this is about enforcing a permitted line of thought.Science paper doubts IPCC so whole journal gets terminated, joannenova.com.aug 2014 january A skeptic blogg. Yes, so one needs to go back to basic. True origin lines from journal itself….

Please read the text of the journal:
Recently, a special issue was compiled entitled “Pattern in solar variability, their planetary origin and terrestrial impacts”. Besides papers dealing with the observed patterns in the heliosphere, the special issue editors ultimately submitted their conclusions in which they “doubt the continued, even accelerated, warming as claimed by the IPCC project” (Pattern Recogn. Phys., 1, 205–206, 2013).

Copernicus Publications published the work and other special issue papers to provide the spectrum of the related papers to the scientists for their individual judgment. Following best practice in scholarly publishing, published articles cannot be removed afterwards.

We at Copernicus Publications wish to distance ourselves from the apparent misuse of the originally agreed aims & scope of the journal and decided on 17 January 2014 to cease the publication of PRP. Of course, scientific dispute is controversial and should allow contradictory opinions which can then be discussed within the scientific community. However, the recent developments including the expressed implications (see above) have led us to this drastic decision
Termination of the journal Pattern Recognition in Physics, Pattern recognistion in physics january 2014

As I written before:
”Weather is and has always been a much more complicated thing to make a forecast of than CO2-believers have understood. There are so many more factors involved than are included in so called data models.

Please observe this:
Extent for North Pole Ice 31 december 2013 12.341.252 km2

Compare this with the Area of United States of America approx 9.830.000 km2
This gives us the fact that the Sea Ice Extent in North Pole in 31 december 2013 was more than 125 % of US total land area..

Please notice that the estimated figures for Ice Bear north the pole circle is 20-22,000…. this means that each Ice Bear have approximated 560 km2 each to walk on without having to meet an other Ice Bear.

That might not seem a lot when using the scale above. But please remember that the area for New York City is 1.213 km2 which gives a figure af close to half the area of New York City for each individual Polar Bear to walk on.

So Greenpeace and WWF ought to rethink the need for ‘saving the Polar Bears’ and to present where on Earth the collected money has been used!

Please tell us: Where have all the money gone? Money collected due to false information of reality.

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At the same time Polarwinds once again hit US, the so called experts of CO2 on an mission to study South Pole’s presumed melting and open water found the summer in South Pole more than hard…. the Ice Extent in North Pole by all means was less than some years but still showed figures the CO2-threat believers tried and still tries not to mention……

‘It’s too darn cold’: Historic freeze brings rare danger warning, CNN 2014/01/06 Historic? By all means NO. But the situation doesn’t happen every year only once or twice each person’s lifetime! Please check for correct information still existing on microfiche in Newpapaper’s archives….
Polar Vortex: Temperatures Fall Far, Fast, NYT 2014/01/07
Rekordkölden greppar hårt om norra USA, DN 7 januari 2013

Weather is and has always been a much more complicated thing to make a forecast of than CO2-believers have understood. There are so many more factors involved than are included in so called data models.

Please observe this:
Extent for North Pole Ice 31 december 2013 12.341.252 km2

Compare this with the Area of United States of America approx 9.830.000 km2
This gives us the fact that the Sea Ice Extent in North Pole in 31 december 2013 was more than 125 % of US total land area..

Please notice that the estimated figures for Ice Bear north the pole circle is 20-22,000…. this means that each Ice Bear have approximated 560 km2 each to walk on without having to meet an other Ice Bear.

That might not seem a lot when using the scale above. But please remember that the area for New York City is 1.213 km2 which gives a figure af close to half the area of New York City for each individual Polar Bear to walk on.

So Greenpeace and WWF ought to rethink the need for ‘saving the Polar Bears’ and to present where on Earth the collected money has been used!North Pole Sea Ice Extent 31 dec 2013, Norah4you 2014/01/05

Polarvindar över USA håller isbjörn inomhus, SvD 7 januari 2013 Hur många av världens 20-22.000 isbjörnar har den lyxen? Isbjörnen har aldrig haft de problem som människor velat ge dem. Däremot har isbjörnar problem med alla små partiklar som vår plastanvändning lämnar i havsvattnet.

What we know about Earth
Earth as we know it is 12 756 km in diameter at the equator.
If you take a rope and let 10 km be equal to 1 cm, half the diameter will be 6 meter and 37,8 cm long. Using the rope to draw a circle in sand you will have a large circle. But it’s only the outher parts that we humans have investigated directly. For example Mount Everest can be represented by a small ‘bup’ 0,85 cm high and the Mariner Grave a 1,09 cm down-bup from the line….

We humans have knowledge, to some extent, of what’s inside. We can calculate the Earth’s gravity (oh well the latter has recently been discussed due to black material) and we know what the Earth’s interior largely composed. We know of a number of natural forces, physical laws and mathematical calculation. But by and large, what we know about the Earth can be represented of the outher parts of your drawn circle.

Turisterna stannar inne i kylan, GP 7 januari 2013
Iskyla i centrala USA, Aftonbladet 7 januari 2013

Interesting bloggarticle to be discussed: Does cold wave imply anything about, cliffmass.blogspot.se

Bye bye CO2-threat! Good to see you gone. Time to look into real human made crises. Such as not polluting our water and air. That’s a real problem!

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BACKGROUND FOR BLOGG ARTICLE
Background for article
What I learnt from the programs mentioned below
A lot of young, young mature as well as educated people under age 50 today lack knowledge enough to understand texts they read. That’s a big problem.
An even worse problem is that a lot of young, young mature as well educated people under age 50 today lack understanding of Mathematic basics. Such as ‘reading’ and understanding Mathematical curves, Statistic and so on.
Article below is written based on this starting point
for more please read note 1

NORTH POLE AND SOUTH POLE ICE EXTENT
IMPACTS

© Johansson Inger E, North Pole and South Pole Ice Extent Impact and understanding, Gothenburg 5th January 2014

Arctic Sea Ice Extent   31 december 2013 source: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Arctic Sea Ice Extent
31 december 2013
source: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

The image above from Arctic Sea Ice Extent, ijis.iarc.uaf.edu is a typical exemple of what all who study Mathematical Statistics are taught not to use. It’s an image not showing the correct proportions. For those who can read curves that might not be an issue. For those who can’t it is.

SEASONAL UPS AND DOWNS IN ICE EXTENT

What’s is important to understand reading the curves is the simple fact that Pole Ice Extent in North Pole as well as South Pole depend on season. Each year the summer ‘heat’ warms up the air and the surface so the Ice Extent decline. Each year the winter ‘colder temperatures’ makes the Ice Extent incline.

IN ACCURATE PRESENTATION OF A CURVE

Please note that the curves not presenting all facts from actual readings from 1980’s up to now. From Theories of Science view this is an red alert at once.

Neither does is it possible to read from image if the reading of a certain day is made at same hour each day or if it’s an average figure counted from max minus min values or if it’s the max or min value of the day. From Theories of Science view this is an red alert at once.

Also please note that the figures, no matter how they are measured calculated and presented, are from readings made by satellites. What can be measured from satellites are reflexion of ice extent. Not actual extent due to the fact that there are large areas in Arctic as well as Antarctic where there during summertime (in Antarctic when it’s winter in Arctic) often exists melted water up to 20 cm over ice no matter if it’s thin ice or several metre thick sea ice. From Theories of Science view this is an red alert!

Same goes for temperature measurements made by satellites. You can’t get temperatures 2 meters above surface nor can you get the actual figures from under the Ice sheet. All correct figures also needs to be taken at same GPS-point no matter when.

If you are accurate you need to do the reading at same time every day. If you don’t or if you try to ”correct” figures, well that’s no Science involved at all. In Theories of Science this is one of the worst fallacies. A circle proof can never ever prove anything of value. That’s one thing every scholar, scientist or otherwise should have learnt before writing a Master thesis…..

COMPARING AREAS

Please observe this:
Extent for North Pole Ice 31 december 2013 12.341.252 km2

Compare this with the Area of United States of America approx 9.830.000 km2
This gives us the fact that the Sea Ice Extent in North Pole in 31 december 2013 was more than 125 % of US total land area..

Please notice that the estimated figures for Ice Bear north the pole circle is 20-22,000…. this means that each Ice Bear have approximated 560 km2 each to walk on without having to meet an other Ice Bear.

That might not seem a lot when using the scale above. But please remember that the area for New York City is 1.213 km2 which gives a figure af close to half the area of New York City for each individual Ice Bear to walk on.

So Greenpeace and WWF ought to rethink the need for ‘saving the Ice Bears’ and to present where on Earth the collected money has been used!

__________________________________________
***************** It’s always good to have the facts correct.
***************** If not, it’s not science but subjective thoughts.

Note 1: correct information regarding why CO2 is measured on vulcanos
Swedish Channel 10 showed a BBC-dokumentary from 2013. In Sweden called Hotet från Mega-TsunamisHotet från Mega-Tsunamis, TV10.se

From geologic facts such as readings of CO2 (please look at the white instrument left of a man, image 1 of 5) placed all round the world on side of vulcanos by geologists used measuser the differences in CO2 in order to be able to predict uprising threats from vulcanos (!) Please remember that all our Earth thousand vulcanos from early days over their active eruptions and still when ‘dead’ vulcano erupts CO2 into the air.

Information re failures of School System in US and Sweden
Also shown on Swedish TV, Channel 4+, was Waiting for ”Superman” An American documentary by David Guggenheim in 2010. The documentary Waiting for Superman analyzes the failure of American Public School system.

The problems shown in the documentary were almost identical to those of Swedens School System. All schools in Sweden are to follow our School Law as well as our official decided Course plans. In Sweden as well as in US we do have Kommunala skolor Public Schools here owned by our towns/ municipalities as well as Friskolor Independent Schools.

ALL schools of Sweden have to follow the decided Course plans. Earlier all schools in Sweden that weren’t Private Schools were under our Swedish States parasolle. Back in 8 december 1989 our Swedish Riksdag Parliament on suggestion of our Minister of Education at the time Göran Persson, later to become Swedish Prime Minister, to place all schools under each town’s/municipalitie’s parasolle.

Thus making it unfair to students in our Grundskola due to the fact that each town/municipality has own rights according to Swedish Grundlaw Constitution to decide on how much money to spend on each town's/municipality's accounts. Using "cheese planner" and "cake server" the amount of money spent on each student today depends on the will of each town/municipality. We do have same problems in class rooms and schools as seen in US.

The learning in a classroom always depends on the teacher's education and commitment as well as on the possibility in class to have good atmosphere, in other word peace and respect. There are good teachers and bad.

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